War in Iran: threatening food security in the Global South

According to official government figures, fuel prices in Myanmar have already doubled compared to the period before the war in Iran. In the North of the country, such as in Kachin State where the Myanmar SWISSAID office is located, prices are even higher: fuel is up to 300% more expensive than in Yangon in the south. Everyday consumer goods and food items are affected as well; the rising costs have made them even harder to access.

‘In Tanzania, the cost of living continues to increase due to rising inflation and recent fuel price adjustments,’ reports Betty Malaki, Country Representative of SWISSAID Tanzania. By April, the price of petrol already saw a mark-up of 33.4 per cent – a trend that has continued into May. At the market, the prices for maize, beans and rice have risen by 50 per cent. Since the start of the crisis, the price of a kilogram of beef has risen from 9,000 to 12,000 Tanzania shillings; that of an egg from 300 to 400 shillings.

These same trends are evident in Chad, where the price of a litre of fuel and engine oil had already doubled in April in the provinces. Unsurprisingly, food has become less affordable. The SWISSAID team in Chad has observed that the price of a kilo of meat has now doubled, whilst the price of a litre of oil has risen by 50%, as has that of a packet of sugar.
In India, meanwhile, a shortage of cooking gas is causing problems for households, restaurants and street vendors. Some smaller businesses have already temporarily reduced their operations or ceased them altogether.

In the rural areas where SWISSAID operates, supply shortages and price hikes are particularly noticeable. Due to higher fuel prices, some transport companies have suspended their services or raised their fares. Around Kolkata, tickets have risen by 67%, shares SWISSAID India. Many local farmers can no longer afford to travel to the markets as often, facing significant losses to their income.

But behind the oil and gas crisis, another one – less conspicuous but all the more serious – is looming: the fertiliser crisis.

Within mere weeks, supplies have been cut off, disrupting farm work in many regions around the world. The supply disruption could not have come at a worse time in the agricultural year: in many places, the sowing period is underway or about to start.

The Global South, too, is hit hard by this situation.

In many countries where SWISSAID operates, farmers are heavily dependent on imported fertilisers. If prices suddenly skyrocket or supplies fail to arrive, farmers are forced to reduce the quantities they use, switch to other crops, or even forgo sowing certain plots.

Such developments are already observed in Myanmar, where farmers have scaled back production due to the sharp rise in fuel and fertiliser costs. Private importers of agricultural inputs are reducing their import volumes. Fertiliser shortages are expected for the coming growing season; as a result, the next harvest could decrease by around 30%.

Such decisions, made under much duress, can result in considerable crop losses. For many farmers, this subsequently means less food for their own consumption, reduced incomes, and increasing food insecurity. It is clear: every international crisis has a direct impact – not just on their fields, but also on their plates.

The World Food Programme (WFP) thus estimates that, by the end of 2026, a further 45 million people could be experiencing food insecurity should the conflict continue beyond the middle of the year.

“The crisis highlights a structural problem”, explains Francesco Ajena, SWISSAID Senior Advisor for agroecology. “The dependence on a globalised agricultural system that is concentrated in the hands of a few large corporations and relies on imported fertilisers.”

However, alternative solutions already exist – such as agroecology, which SWISSAID has been promoting for a long time. It is an approach which relies on local resources and natural methods to improve soil quality. Thanks to agroecology, farming families can reduce their costs as well as stabilise their yields. Above all, it offers farmers a way to overcome their dependence on imported fertilisers and pesticides, regain their autonomy, and protect themselves better against external shocks – such as disruptions in global supply chains caused by wars.

SWISSAID therefore advocates for a food system based on real independence and justice. Through promoting local cycles and adopting sustainable, natural farming methods, people in the Global South will have a chance to achieve genuine food sovereignty.

Cover picture by Sri Kolari