El Niño: Analyzing the Impacts and Solutions for Countries in the Global South

Sonja Tschirren, El Niño is currently attracting worldwide attention. Why?

El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years. During this event, the surface water in the tropical Pacific warms up more than usual. This alters air currents and precipitation patterns across the globe. A particularly strong warming is expected this year. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) sees an approximately 80% probability of a moderate to strong El Niño from June to August 2026. The phenomenon will peak between November 2026 and February 2027, although the local impacts will vary greatly.

Is this related to climate change?

No. El Niño is not a consequence of climate change—but it can amplify its effects. Regions that already suffer from drought often become even drier. This could be the case in India and Sub-Saharan Africa, for example. Other regions experience unusually heavy rainfall or flooding. The actual consequences are regionally very different.

Why is SWISSAID monitoring El Niño so closely?

Many of the people we work with are directly dependent on the weather. Smallholder farmers in Guinea-Bissau, India, or Tanzania cultivate small fields. There are often no irrigation systems, hardly any financial reserves, and certainly no crop failure insurance. If the rain fails to come or falls in torrential downpours, it threatens the families’ livelihoods and undermines the progress made in recent years. That is why we are in close contact with our country offices and local partner organizations.

Despite intensive monitoring, it is not yet possible to say exactly which regions will be particularly affected. Why is that?

El Niño influences local climatic phenomena—such as ocean temperatures in specific areas, as well as wind strengths and directions—thereby altering the probability of certain weather conditions. How strongly this ultimately manifests in a specific country or even a single region depends on many other factors. That is why we deliberately speak of “possible developments.” Nevertheless, we know from past El Niño events that the consequences can be devastating, especially for the Global South, because weather events become more extreme. The UN has already warned of possible hunger crises due to destroyed harvests. Therefore, it is essential to monitor the forecasts and react accordingly.

Is it even possible to prepare for such weather extremes?

You cannot prevent them, but you can mitigate their consequences. We are currently implementing early warning systems in our countries so that farmers can better prepare for such weather events. In addition, through our agroecological approach, we promote a more resilient form of agriculture: using diverse local seeds instead of monocultures, cultivating healthy soils that retain water better, utilizing compost instead of expensive synthetic fertilizers, and employing farming methods that yield crops even under difficult conditions.

What does El Niño make particularly clear to us?

El Niño reminds us how vulnerable our food system is—and how unjust the climate crisis is. The countries of the Global North are responsible for the vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions. However, the people who are currently suffering from droughts, floods, and crop failures often live in the Global South. Those who, like Switzerland and other industrialized and emerging economies, are the main contributors to the climate crisis also bear a special responsibility toward those who endure its consequences every day.

More on the subject

El Niño consequences in the Global South

Droughts, floods: El Niño threatens food security in the Global South. Find out how SWISSAID teams are taking action on the ground.

Our work for climate

Droughts, storms, floods: The effects of climate change are exacerbating poverty and hunger. People in the countries of the South suffer the most. We are committed to strengthening the independence of farmers and increasing their resilience to climate challenges.